Enough opinions are shared. Therefore, the following thoughts are not of a political nature. Let’s get down to business and see if this has already possible effects on today’s supply chains & sourcing activities. But also, let’s learn from the past and consider previous decisions made during the first term in office as they still impact us today.
CNBC provided an excellent summary on November 6th:
📌Retailers & manufacturing companies have been increasingly calling logistics partners, both in the days leading up to the presidential election and on Election Night, about front-loading shipments ahead of any changes in tariff policy to be pursued by President-elect Trump, who campaigned on an aggressive expansion of existing U.S. tariffs on cross-border trade
📌There will be a surge in import demand for containerized goods as U.S. companies stock up ahead of new tariffs. Especially related to goods that are not time-sensitive and will create upward pressure on freight rates in the coming months
📌Front-loading of shipping contributed to the 70% inflation in freight rates, according to data from 2018. Potential tariffs provide cost risk on global supply chains
📌 Proposed tariffs would cause companies to delay further their investment in Mexico and uncertainty around USMCA renegotiation in 2026, potentially impacting trading
My observation: Overall, we see great similarities to the past. Trump’s policies notably impacted global supply chains, reshaping trade flows, manufacturing trends, and sourcing strategies. Here are some key ways his policies influenced (and probably will in the future) supply chains:
⏩Trade Wars & Tariffs. Trump initiated a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods -> Diversification of Sourcing to countries in Southeast Asia
⏩Renegotiation of Trade Deals. Trump renegotiated NAFTA into the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), impacting North American supply chains -> This influenced U.S. companies to source more materials domestically or from Canada and Mexico.
⏩Push for Domestic Manufacturing. Trump’s administration promoted an „America First“ approach-> Pressure on companies to invest in U.S. production facilities
⏩Impact on Technology and Semiconductor Supply Chains. Trump’s administration placed restrictions on Chinese tech giants like Huawei, impacting the semiconductor supply chain -> Push for Domestic Semiconductor Production
⏩Trump’s earlier policies set the stage for a trend toward „de-globalization,“ with companies increasingly evaluating supply chain resilience, diversity, and national security in their sourcing decisions. While Biden has taken a different approach, some of Trump’s policies, especially on China, remain influential, as supply chain resilience and domestic production remain priorities in U.S. policy.
Summary: Uncertainty and political decisions will keep us Supply Chain people busy. Your thoughts?
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